2025 PGA Championship Picks: A Deep Dive into Quail Hollow Contenders
Imagine the roar of the crowd, sunlight glinting off dew-kissed fairways, and a gallery hushed as the world’s best position themselves for a final putt. The 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow promises drama, heartbreak and triumphant glory. With favorites like Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler duking it out alongside longshots such as Tony Finau and Denny McCarthy, the stakes have never been higher. Whether you’re handpicking your winner or crafting your best bet, our comprehensive guide to pga championship picks will equip you with stats, expert takes and insider insights.
Why Quail Hollow Matters
Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, is nicknamed “The Bear” for its relentless challenge. Sticky Bermuda greens, unforgiving rough and three formidable par‑5s demand both power and precision.
- Course history matters: Rory McIlroy has hoisted the Wells Fargo Championship trophy here four times.
- Key metrics: Driving distance, accuracy and iron play on par‑4s average under 450 yards are critical.
According to the Official World Golf Ranking, the field strength for the PGA Championship regularly ranks in the top two globally, just behind The Open Championship
Experts’ Top Contenders
The Heavyweights (Odds under +600)
| Golfer | Odds | Expert Support |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | +475 | Favored by 8 of 15 analysts, four-time winner at Quail Hollow (Maldonado, Barrie) |
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 | World No.1 pedigree; eight-stroke 31-under at Byron Nelson (Collins, Eaves) |
| Justin Thomas | +2200 | Two-time PGA winner, strong recent form, playoff prowess (Barron, Darlington) |
“Rory’s confidence is sky-high after the Masters Grand Slam relief. At Quail, he feels at home,” notes Michael Eaves from Golf Digest.
Dark Horses & Value Picks
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1200): Length off the tee magnified by wet conditions ● perhaps his best ball-striking advantage this week.
- Xander Schauffele (+2000): Consistent greens-in-regulation record, two runner-ups at Quail.
- Patrick Reed (+9000): Low Canadian markets, Ryder Cup motivation and recent LIV form undervalued.
Longshots (100-to-1 or longer)
- Tony Finau (+12500): Distance is his calling card; first-time major winners often emerge at the PGA ● last seen in 2016 with Jimmy Walker.
- Denny McCarthy (+17500): Course familiarity: two top‑10s past two years at Quail Hollow.
- Keith Mitchell (+11000): Five straight top‑20s entering the week, iron play surging.
Data-Driven Insights
Form & Statistics
- Strokes Gained: 18 of the past 19 PGA winners gained strokes in their previous event; only Brooks Koepka in 2023 bucked that trend.
- Par‑5 Performance: Three par‑5s at Quail average 4.87 strokes; top-10 players in par‑5 birdie-or-better percentage have won four of five times.
Betting Tips
- Matchup Wagers: McIlroy over Scheffler at -110 offers solid value given course familiarity.
- Top‑10 Round 1: Rory Top‑10 (+200) is attractive; he often opens fast at familiar venues.
- Outright Favorites vs. Field: Scheffler’s +400 seems steep; consider a split ticket with DeChambeau.
Building Your Own Bet Slip
- Mix favorites with value: Combine a Rory win ticket with a Bryson Top‑5 bet to balance risk.
- Use prop bets: Look at hole‑in‑one markets or lowest putts per round for extra edge.
- Monitor weather: Showers forecast could shorten rough; favor bombers accordingly.
Pro tip: Stake 5–10% of your bankroll on heavy favorites, reserving the rest for longshot multibets.
Visualizing the Contenders
| Player | Driving Distance Rank | GIR% Rank | Recent Major Top‑10s |
| Rory McIlroy | 3 | 12 | 3 (Masters, Players) |
| Scottie Scheffler | 5 | 8 | 1 (Byron Nelson) |
| Justin Thomas | 10 | 14 | 2 (Heritage, Truist) |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 1 | 30 | 4 (U.S. Open) |
Whether you’re backing ROCKET‑powered drives or betting on an underdog surge, Quail Hollow’s 2025 PGA Championship will serve up unforgettable moments. From Rory McIlroy’s quest for a second major in three weeks to a potential first-time winner lurking at +12500, this tournament has it all. Share your favorite picks and betting tips in the comments below!
